Central Bank of Egypt Raises Growth Forecasts Through to 2027

The Central Bank of Egypt raised its real GDP growth forecasts to an average of 5.1% for fiscal year 2025/26 and 5.5% for 2026/27, up from earlier estimates of 4.8% and 5.1% in its Q4 2025 Monetary Policy Report published on February 22nd, 2026.

In the report, the central bank attributed the upward revision to higher anticipated contributions from non-petroleum manufacturing and services, supported by projected progress in monetary easing that is likely to further bolster real private sector credit growth.

It added that the output gap is expected to narrow over the forecast horizon, with the economy projected to converge to potential by the end of 2026.

The report also noted that real GDP at market prices grew by 5.3% in the third quarter of 2025, the strongest rate since the first quarter of 2022, and estimated that fourth quarter 2025 growth was approximately 4.9%.

On prices, the central bank expects annual headline inflation to remain broadly stable near current levels in the first quarter of 2026 before resuming a declining path, averaging 12.0% in 2025/26 and 9.0% in 2026/27, converging toward the target range of 7% (±2 percentage points) in the fourth quarter of 2026.

Separately, sector data showed that net foreign assets across Egypt’s banking system increased by a cumulative USD 20.3 billion during 2025, with total net foreign assets reaching USD 25.5 billion in December 2025, the highest level since July 2012. The central bank’s own net foreign assets rose for the eighth consecutive month to USD 15.1 billion in January 2026.